B14高于B13

有点儿丑

卷绕感明显消失

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：徐立、刘涛 签发：张玲 2025 年 09 月 27 日 18 时
“温贝托”向偏西方向移动
时 间: 27日14时
海 域: 北大西洋
命 名: “温贝托”，HUMBERTO
中心位置: 西经58.9度，北纬22.2度
强度等级: 四级飓风
最大风力: 17级以上，64米/秒，相当于我国的超强台风级
中心气压: 940百帕
参考位置: 距离北大西洋开曼群岛东北方向约620公里
变化过程: 过去24小时，“温贝托”强度由10级加强为17级以上
预报结论: “温贝托”将以每小时11公里的速度向偏西方向移动，强度先增强，再逐渐减弱。

图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年9月27日14时00分）

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0900Z 22.3N 59.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 22.6N 60.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 23.3N 62.3W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 24.4N 64.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 25.8N 66.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
60H 29/1800Z 27.3N 67.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 29.1N 68.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 33.4N 66.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 37.7N 56.4W 90 KT 105 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Humberto seems to have paused its meteoric rise for the moment.
The eye has become smaller and more distorted based on GOES
satellite imagery. An AMSR2 microwave pass showed some evidence
that the concentric rings mentioned in the previous discussion have
contracted, indicating an ongoing eyewall replacement cycle. The
microwave images also displayed classic hurricane structure, with
curved banding in all quadrants and no signs of dry air intrusions.
The satellite intensity estimates have leveled off overnight, and
the initial intensity is held at 125 kt, closest to the UW-CIMSS ADT
of T6.3.

虽然说没有想象中那么干净，但是NHC说ERC就是纯扯

nhc上望一天后c5
Humberto seems to have paused its meteoric rise for the moment. The eye has become smaller and more distorted based on GOES satellite imagery. An AMSR2 microwave pass showed some evidence that the concentric rings mentioned in the previous discussion have contracted, indicating an ongoing eyewall replacement cycle. The microwave images also displayed classic hurricane structure, with curved banding in all quadrants and no signs of dry air intrusions. The satellite intensity estimates have leveled off overnight, and the initial intensity is held at 145 mph (125 knots), closest to the UW-CIMSS ADT of T6.3.
While internal dynamics may have interrupted Humberto's strengthening, the hurricane still has about a day of conducive environmental and oceanic conditions to intensify. Some of the regional hurricane models show slight strengthening, though most of the model guidance suggests Humberto will hold generally steady for the next couple of days. By next week, the vertical wind shear is expected to increase and induce a gradual weakening trend. As Humberto gains latitude, a significant expansion in the surface wind field will likely occur while it passes west of Bermuda. Phase-space analyses of global model forecasts by day 5 show Humberto as an extratropical cyclone, or close to one. The latest NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous prediction and lies on the high end of the guidance in the short-term.
The hurricane is moving westward at 5 mph (5 knots). A subtropical ridge centered over the western Atlantic should slowly steer Humberto to the west or west-northwest during the next day or so, then turn the cyclone to the northwest and north-northwest by early next week. By day 4, an amplifying upper-level trough moving out of the Canadian Maritimes is expected to rapidly steer Humberto northeastward. The NHC track forecast shifted slightly eastward this cycle and is a little quicker at day

这样算置换，那在你NHC眼里啥形态都能唤做置换了。