上一个有较稳定的极针TC是奥鹿二巅，不过很可惜，贴子没了，数据几手佚失

你们给多少

这货的眼怎么一直跟便秘了一样开不出我们25年入坑的也有自己的格美追，关键清空度还不如Fina 本人没认真追，请问各位大佬是遇到什么发展阻碍了吗

0100z

早

HWRF预报还没到巅峰，今晚到明天凌晨可以开眼，C3，但ir模拟的一般

FMS：T4.0 55KT
TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU CENTRE 975HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
15.6S 173.1E AT 060000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 05 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 55 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER THE LLCC AND ORGANIZATION
REMAINS GOOD. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 300HPA. SYSTEM LIES
IN A GOOD UPPER DIVERGENT AREA WITH A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. CYCLONE
LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 1.0 WRAP WITH W BAND YIELDS DT=4.0, PT=4.0
MET=3.0. FT BASED ON PT. THUS, YIELDING T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS.

FNV318z

FNV18z

重新尝试塌陷

成功了吗

外眼雏形正在剥洋葱般削弱内眼，考虑到还有大概一天时间，先上望一波115kts

b