ZCZC
TCPQ40 BABJ 101800
CCAA 10180 99398 11165
SINLAKU 04083 11510 12234 235// 90302
NNNN

-97夸张哦

AIFS的12Z，决定报和集系同时西调，传统数值即将和AI达成统一路径了

没招了，发一遍吞一遍

现在是65kt吧

依旧高潮

看了一下，GFS和EC预报的11号白天中层风切有点狠啊大家可以先静心一天，如果周六晚上回来一看结构还是不错，再作较高上望不迟

睡觉增强法，启动！
EC本报最低气压911HPa，发生于4-15的03Z。

WTPQ50 RJTD 101800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2604 SINLAKU (2604) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101800UTC 08.0N 151.3E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 210NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 111800UTC 09.4N 150.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 121800UTC 11.4N 147.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 131800UTC 13.6N 144.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
96HF 141800UTC 15.2N 142.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
120HF 151800UTC 16.6N 141.0E 180NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =

数值与AI路径逐渐统一后，我们再来看看风切情况：
今天（11日）是高空环境比较差的一天，gfs/ec/飓风数值均反映了明显的中层风切，白天中层最大风切可达20-30kt，AIFS西调后，预报的降水率也明显不对称。
.
今天白天卷眼进度可能放慢一些，直接塌陷开眼不太现实。夜间中层风切会减弱，高空环境转好，不过也得考虑这次中层风切诱导小规模置换的可能性。不论如何，熬过今天的风切后，森拉克还有很多发展时间。

WTKO20 RKSL 101800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5
NAME 2604 SINLAKU
ANALYSIS
POSITION 101800UTC 8.2N 151.0E
MOVEMENT ENE 10KT
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 110600UTC 8.7N 150.8E WITHIN 20NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
24HR
POSITION 111800UTC 9.3N 150.3E WITHIN 45NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
36HR
POSITION 120600UTC 10.0N 149.5E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
48HR
POSITION 121800UTC 11.0N 148.2E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
72HR
POSITION 131800UTC 13.0N 145.9E WITHIN 105NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
96HR
POSITION 141800UTC 14.9N 144.6E WITHIN 155NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
120HR
POSITION 151800UTC 16.6N 143.6E WITHIN 240NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

04W SINLAKU 260410 1800 8.0N 151.0E WPAC 60 983