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飞溅伤害期望的粗略计算

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闲来无事,计算一下[飞溅]的伤害期望。
计算方式:
1,只计伤害数字,不计任何格挡、抽牌、加费、易伤、虚弱之类的额外收益。
2,手牌视为2打2防且余有2费,抽牌堆视为有牌且有打击,消耗牌堆视为有1进阶之灾,牌组视为共4张打击。
3,毒牌,产球牌、轰击,计算两回合伤害。
4,奥斯提牌、X费牌、灾厄,视为0伤害。
5,版本为v105.1原版


IP属地:四川1楼2026-05-19 12:44回复
    使用python进行计算。
    数据如下,卡牌顺序为图鉴中从左到右,从上到下。
    带有下划线的数据为敲过的牌的数据。
    zhan=[6, 9, 9, 10, 10, 4, 10, 5, 9, 9, 7, 16, 18, 4, 0, 5, 9, 8, 9, 6, 15, 13, 12, 10, 16, 12, 32, 0, 8, 8, 0, 28, 15]
    zhan_=[8, 12, 10, 10, 14, 7, 14, 7, 12, 13, 9, 21, 24, 4, 0, 5, 9, 10, 10, 9, 20, 13, 18, 12, 21, 15, 42, 0, 10, 12, 0, 40, 20]
    lie=[6, 8, 11, 6, 7, 9, 8, 11, 12, 11, 0, 9, 10, 12, 9, 12, 10, 15, 12, 15, 10, 0, 10, 6]
    lie_=[9, 12, 15, 8, 9, 12, 10, 14, 15, 15, 0, 12, 14, 16, 11, 16, 13, 20, 18, 19, 13, 0, 13, 6]
    chu=[11, 14, 10, 9, 7, 10, 12, 7, 18, 0, 13, 0, 8, 8, 8, 8, 30, 15, 30, 27, 33, 6, 0, 5, 21, 9, 20, 49, 36]
    chu_=[15, 18, 13, 10, 8, 11, 13, 9, 24, 0, 18, 0, 10, 9, 11, 10, 40, 18, 38, 35, 44, 9, 0, 7, 26, 11, 25, 49, 48]
    gu=[0, 9, 8, 13, 9, 4, 8, 7, 10, 0, 0, 27, 0, 0, 10, 10, 0, 0, 8, 0, 0, 0, 13, 52, 0, 7, 10, 9, 0, 0, 33]
    gu_=[0, 11, 11, 17, 12, 6, 10, 8, 12, 0, 0, 33, 0, 0, 13, 12, 0, 0, 9, 0, 0, 0, 18, 63, 0, 9, 13, 9, 0, 0, 33]
    ji=[3, 3, 3, 7, 10, 0, 6, 9, 13, 6, 12, 18, 5, 3, 7, 13, 10, 12, 24, 33, 9, 11, 28, 0, 18, 10, 19, 24]
    ji_=[4, 4, 4, 10, 13, 0, 9, 11, 16, 9, 15, 22, 6, 4, 10, 14, 13, 18, 32, 39, 15, 15, 36, 0, 23, 14, 24, 30]


    IP属地:四川2楼2026-05-19 12:45
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      2026-06-09 18:12:57
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      其余代码如下(相当劣质,但能用就行):
      zhan_fei=lie+chu+gu+ji
      zhan_fei_=lie_+chu_+gu_+ji_
      lie_fei=zhan+chu+gu+ji
      lie_fei_=zhan_+chu_+gu_+ji_
      chu_fei=zhan+lie+gu+ji
      chu_fei_=zhan_+lie_+gu_+ji_
      gu_fei=zhan+lie+chu+ji
      gu_fei_=zhan_+lie_+chu_+ji_
      ji_fei=zhan+lie+chu+gu
      ji_fei_=zhan_+lie_+chu_+gu_
      def fei(fei_list):
      total = 0
      count = 0
      n = len(fei_list)
      for i in range(n - 2):
      for j in range(i + 1, n - 1):
      for k in range(j + 1, n):
      total += max(fei_list[i], fei_list[j], fei_list[k])
      count += 1
      if count > 0:
      return round(total / count, 2)
      else:
      return 0
      print("战飞溅期望:", fei(zhan_fei))
      print("战飞溅+期望:", fei(zhan_fei_))
      print("猎飞溅期望:", fei(lie_fei))
      print("猎飞溅+期望:", fei(lie_fei_))
      print("储飞溅期望:", fei(chu_fei))
      print("储飞溅+期望:", fei(chu_fei_))
      print("骨飞溅期望:", fei(gu_fei))
      print("骨飞溅+期望:", fei(gu_fei_))
      print("机飞溅期望:", fei(ji_fei))
      print("机飞溅+期望:", fei(ji_fei_))


      IP属地:四川3楼2026-05-19 12:46
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        最终结论:
        战飞溅期望: 18.83
        战飞溅+期望: 23.58
        猎飞溅期望: 19.19
        猎飞溅+期望: 24.13
        储飞溅期望: 16.16
        储飞溅+期望: 20.64
        骨飞溅期望: 18.32
        骨飞溅+期望: 23.43
        机飞溅期望: 17.97
        机飞溅+期望: 22.71


        IP属地:四川4楼2026-05-19 12:47
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          验算(取一百万次随机数进行计算,数据为战士飞溅加):
          import random
          total=0
          count=1000000
          for i in range(count):
          total+= max(random.sample(zhan_fei_, 3))
          print(total/count)
          结果:23.582983,符合上述数据


          IP属地:四川5楼2026-05-19 12:48
          回复
            叠甲:
            1,此伤害期望为理论伤害期望,不等于真实伤害期望,只能说明无脑选择最高伤害时[飞溅]的伤害期望。
            2,飞溅的真实伤害期望在SL局中会更高,如弱怪开出七星,SL后不开,强怪、精英再开七星。
            3,不能认为[飞溅]完全等于1c18。(虽然我知道绝对会有人在飞溅开下面回复“1c18罢了”,然后马上就有人问“谁算的?飞溅1c18?怎么算的?”)


            IP属地:四川6楼2026-05-19 12:55
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              分析:
              1,飞溅的理论伤害期望看来是猎>战>骨>机>储。
              2,平均来看,飞溅大概是1c18,飞溅+大概是1c23,升级大概+5,约等于[契约终结]的升级幅度。


              IP属地:四川8楼2026-05-19 13:03
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                最后,数据全为人工统计,代码手打加AI校对,如有缺漏,还望不吝赐教。


                IP属地:四川9楼2026-05-19 13:04
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                  2026-06-09 18:06:57
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                  一些趣事:
                  1,在飞溅能出的共145张攻击牌中,有整整23张牌在本计算方法中伤害为0(奥斯提牌、X费牌、华、每X一次就造成一次伤害的终端。)
                  2,在飞溅能出的共145张攻击牌中,伤害最高的是骨的埋葬+(63),但骨同时也有最多的0伤牌:合计13张,贡献了23张0伤牌的一半还多……
                  3,鸡煲的[折射]看起来就9x2+两个玻璃球,但在此计算方法下是9x2+8(推掉第一个玻璃)+4(第二个玻璃)+3(第二个玻璃,下回合),共33伤害,大于重锤……


                  IP属地:四川23楼2026-05-19 13:39
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                    飞溅对三伤害期望:
                    计算方式:
                    1,所有aoe牌伤害乘3计算,然后再从三选一中无脑选择伤害最高一项。
                    2,其余不变。
                    数据如下:
                    zhan=[6, 9, 9, 10, 10, 12, 10, 5, 27, 9, 7, 16, 18, 4, 0, 5, 9, 8, 9, 6, 15, 13, 12, 10, 48, 36, 32, 0, 24, 8, 0, 28, 15]
                    zhan_= [8, 12, 10, 10, 14, 21, 14, 7, 39, 13, 9, 21, 24, 4, 0, 5, 9, 10, 10, 9, 20, 13, 18, 12, 63, 45, 42, 0, 30, 12, 0, 40, 20]
                    lie=[6, 24, 11, 18, 7, 9, 8, 11, 12, 11, 0, 9, 10, 12, 9, 12, 10, 15, 12, 15, 10, 0, 30, 6]
                    lie_=[9, 36, 15, 24, 9, 12, 10, 14, 15, 15, 0, 12, 14, 16, 11, 16, 13, 20, 18, 19, 13, 0, 39, 6]
                    chu=[11, 42, 10, 9, 21, 10, 12, 7, 18, 0, 13, 0, 24, 8, 8, 8, 30, 15, 30, 27, 33, 6, 0, 5, 63, 27, 20, 147, 36]
                    chu_=[15, 54, 13, 10, 24, 11, 13, 9, 24, 0, 18, 0, 30, 9, 11, 10, 40, 18, 38, 35, 44, 9, 0, 7, 78, 33, 25, 147, 48]
                    gu=[0, 9, 8, 13, 9, 4, 8, 7, 10, 0, 0, 27, 0, 0, 10, 10, 0, 0, 8, 0, 0, 0, 13, 52, 0, 7, 10, 9, 0, 0, 99]
                    gu_=[0, 11, 11, 17, 12, 6, 10, 8, 12, 0, 0, 33, 0, 0, 13, 12, 0, 0, 9, 0, 0, 0, 18, 63, 0, 9, 13, 9, 0, 0, 99]
                    ji=[3, 3, 3, 7, 10, 0, 18, 9, 13, 6, 12, 18, 5, 3, 7, 13, 10, 12, 24, 63, 9, 33, 84, 0, 18, 10, 19, 24]
                    ji_=[4, 4, 4, 10, 13, 0, 27, 11, 16, 9, 15, 22, 6, 4, 10, 14, 13, 18, 32, 69, 15, 45, 108, 0, 23, 14, 24, 30]


                    IP属地:四川26楼2026-05-19 13:58
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                      对三最终结论:
                      战飞溅期望: 28.96
                      战飞溅+期望: 35.18
                      猎飞溅期望: 29.44
                      猎飞溅+期望: 36.01
                      储飞溅期望: 23.26
                      储飞溅+期望: 29.41
                      骨飞溅期望: 28.25
                      骨飞溅+期望: 35.4
                      机飞溅期望: 26.91
                      机飞溅+期望: 33.05


                      IP属地:四川27楼2026-05-19 13:58
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                        对三分析:
                        1,对三时,飞溅的理论伤害期望依旧是猎>战>骨>机>储,但飞溅+变成了猎>骨>战>机>储,大概是因为骨只有女妖一张能打出伤害的aoe,战则有很多。
                        2,平均来看,对三时飞溅平均等价于1caoe打9,飞溅+平均等价于1caoe打11,升级大概+3。
                        3,对于2,这不是说飞溅等价于1caoe打9,这是说飞溅在对3时,平均伤害期望与1caoe打9相当。换言之,可以认为飞溅在打三时会从1c打18“自适应”为1caoe打9。


                        IP属地:四川33楼2026-05-19 15:01
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