回复：【讨论旋风】南印度洋旋风SH292025【台风吧】

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回复：【讨论旋风】南印度洋旋风SH292025

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雲捲眼

IP属地:中国台湾

291楼2025-04-14 23:17

今天06z的HAFS-A报出的巅峰为160kt，终于“理性”地不再报出超顶超了。从96P阶段HAFS开始计算以来，每一报都认为29S将会达到超顶超强度，甚至有过227kt的夸张预报。从0912z开始到1400z，超顶超报数达到19报，应该是毫无疑问的HAFS服役以来最看好的一个tc。这里不分析为什么这么夸张，仅仅做升格26S以来所有的超顶超报的地面风力巅峰的存档。

IP属地:广东

292楼2025-04-14 23:22

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来自iPhone客户端293楼2025-04-15 00:09

卷

IP属地:广东

来自Android客户端294楼2025-04-15 00:24

NAME: TROPICAL LOW
IDENTIFIER: 29U
DATA AT: 1800 UTC
LATITUDE: 13.8S
LONGITUDE: 122.8E
LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 25NM (45 KM)
MOVEMENT TOWARDS: WEST SOUTHWEST (243 DEG)
SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 2 KNOTS (4 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 30 KNOTS (55 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 45 KNOTS (85 KM/H)
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
FORECAST DATA
DATE/TIME : LOCATION : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND : CENTRAL PRESSURE
(UTC) : DEGREES : NM (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
+06: 15/0000: 13.9S 122.5E: 035 (070): 035 (065): 999
+12: 15/0600: 13.9S 121.9E: 045 (085): 040 (075): 997
+18: 15/1200: 13.8S 121.3E: 055 (105): 040 (075): 997
+24: 15/1800: 13.8S 120.5E: 060 (115): 045 (085): 995
+36: 16/0600: 14.1S 119.3E: 070 (130): 050 (095): 991
+48: 16/1800: 14.3S 118.5E: 075 (135): 060 (110): 983
+60: 17/0600: 14.5S 118.5E: 095 (175): 065 (120): 978
+72: 17/1800: 14.7S 119.1E: 120 (225): 055 (100): 987
+96: 18/1800: 15.2S 120.6E: 190 (350): 035 (065): 1000
+120: 19/1800: 15.7S 121.2E: 230 (425): 030 (055): 1001

IP属地:广东

来自Android客户端295楼2025-04-15 04:45

29S TWENTYNINE 250414 1800 13.6S 122.6E SHEM 45 996

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来自Android客户端296楼2025-04-15 04:45

IP属地:广东

来自Android客户端297楼2025-04-15 04:45

TPXS10 PGTW 141912
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (NW OF BROWSE ISLAND)
B. 14/1731Z
C. 13.70S
D. 122.32E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.0 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET & PT AGREE. DBO DT. BROKE CONSTRAINTS DUE
TO RAPID STRENGTHENING. RE-ANALYZED POSITION.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
TIMMERMAN

IP属地:广东

来自Android客户端298楼2025-04-15 04:45

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TXXS23 KNES 141750
TCSSIO
A. 29S (NONAME)
B. 14/1730Z
C. 14.0S
D. 122.3E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F. T2.5/2.5
G. IR/EIR/PRXY
H. REMARKS...4/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. PT AGREES. MET IS
ALSO 2.5 BASED ON A 24 HOUR STEADY TREND. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET
BECAUSE BANDING WAS NOT CLEAR CUT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK

IP属地:广东

来自Android客户端299楼2025-04-15 04:45

TPXS10 PGTW 142114
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (NW OF BROWSE ISLAND)
B. 14/2030Z
C. 14.03S
D. 121.87E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.0/3.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .9 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET AGREES WITH DT. PT YIELDS A 3.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
TIMMERMAN

IP属地:广东

来自Android客户端300楼2025-04-15 06:00