看样子可能是个针，但还是有风切影响

平均线就在眼前了，上一次就差了一点点，这一次一定要过啊

目前通过这两个小时的底层对比，可以看出来，北侧已经开始逐渐卷上去了，这可能代表着风切减弱，但并没有反映到高层形态上，最后卷出来可能是个针，如果是的话强度可能就很高了（前提是风切给面子）

有没有大佬解释一下,外洋台风怎么看？为啥感觉25kt也就是六级风的系统很少被命名为热带低压。基本都是7级。六级基本都是热带扰动。

眼区？还有这小核心大雨带的结构让人担心啊，虽然西北肿瘤已经没了

EP, 14, 2025092218, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1034W, 50, 997, TS,

EP, 14, 2025092218, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1034W, 50, 997, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 30, 20, 50, 1008, 180, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NARDA, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 026,
EP, 14, 2025092218, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1034W, 50, 997, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NARDA, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 026,

TXPZ21 KNES 221802
TCSENP
A. 14E (NARDA)
B. 22/1800Z
C. 16.1N
D. 103.2W
E. THREE/GOES-W
F. T3.0/3.0
G. IR/EIR/VIS/GMI
H. REMARKS...6/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. MET IS 3.0 BASED ON
RAPID DEVELOPMENT. PT IS ALSO 3.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET BECAUSE
BANDING WAS NOT CLEAR CUT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
22/1513Z 16.0N 102.7W GMI
...TURK

INIT 22/2100Z 16.2N 103.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 16.3N 105.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 16.3N 107.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 16.3N 110.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 16.2N 112.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 25/0600Z 16.1N 115.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 16.2N 117.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 17.0N 122.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 18.5N 125.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

可能18Z基本上就弄好了，雨带也没了，速度快点也许今天是他的主场，目前还有30个小时左右的低风切，加油

TXPZ21 KNES 230029
TCSENP
A. 14E (NARDA)
B. 23/0000Z
C. 16.2N
D. 104.7W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T3.5/3.5
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...8/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.5. THE MET IS 3.5 BASED ON
A RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS ALSO 3.5. THE
FT IS BASED ON THE MET BECAUSE THE BANDING FEATURES WERE NOT CLEAR CUT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...BERTALAN